- No. 1, Sec. 4, Roosevelt Road, Taipei, Taiwan (10617)
- +886 2 3366-8387
Kai-Ping Huang
National Taiwan University, Political Science, Faculty Member
- I am currently interested in ideological polarization and democratization in East and Southeast Asia.edit
Research Interests:
This article investigates the interactions of socioeconomic characteristics and electoral outcomes at the constituency level to demonstrate the change in the Thai party system since 2001. Probing the effects of the agricultural population... more
This article investigates the interactions of socioeconomic characteristics and electoral outcomes at the constituency level to demonstrate the change in the Thai party system since 2001. Probing the effects of the agricultural population and income inequality on electoral outcomes in the proportional representation (PR) tier, this article finds that the Thai Rak Thai Party (TRT) and the Democrat Party (DP) attracted voters with opposite social standings. While voters residing in the provinces with substantial agrarian populations tended to vote more for the TRT than the DP, constituencies with highly unequal income distribution were more likely to be DP supporters. The findings provide evidence against alternative explanations, including regionalism and support for a charismatic leader, for the TRT's consecutive victories. Due to the convergence between social divisions and party support, the Thai party system has become stable and strong enough to resist short-term interventions, implying that the future electoral outcomes will likely be similar.
Does generalized trust lead to democratic transitions? Despite the voluminous literature on trust and democracy, very little examines the link between trust and democratic regime change. We theorize that generalized trust should lead to... more
Does generalized trust lead to democratic transitions? Despite the voluminous literature on trust and democracy, very little examines the link between trust and democratic regime change. We theorize that generalized trust should lead to support for the status quo rather than support for regime change. In democracies, this means that citizens in effect support the democratic regime. However, in autocracies this status quo bias means that trusting individuals support the autocracy. We test this argument using data from the Asian Barometer Survey. Our simultaneous equation model shows that generalized trust has a negative impact on support for regime change regardless of regime type. This suggests that generalized trust – if anything – constitutes a headwind against democratic regime change rather than a facilitating factor.
Research Interests:
The battle for soft-power supremacy among Great Powers in East Asia holds some surprises as China’s influence is not gaining in ways commensurate with its rising power and the US just holds steady despite its greater engagement in the... more
The battle for soft-power supremacy among Great Powers in East Asia holds some surprises as China’s influence is not gaining in ways commensurate with its rising power and the US just holds steady despite its greater engagement in the region. These are among the findings in the last two waves of the Asian Barometer Survey (ABS), which asked respondents to name a “model” country to emulate, write Kai-Ping Huang and Bridget Welsh. Among the winners are Japan and Singapore, while domestic governments in the region lose favor with their citizens.
Research Interests:
ASEAN’s announcement of a ASEAN Community in December 2015 marked an important milestone in the regional organization’s nearly 50-year history. Under the three pillars of political, economic and socio-cultural ties, ASEAN projects the... more
ASEAN’s announcement of a ASEAN Community in December
2015 marked an important milestone in the regional organization’s
nearly 50-year history. Under the three pillars of political, economic
and socio-cultural ties, ASEAN projects the idea of “One Vision, One
Identity, One Community.” These aims of bringing people together,
strengthening economic ties and enhancing security and prosperity
are taking on new heights, as the organization works towards a
future of shared well-being. A key element in the success of these
goals lies with citizens views of ASEAN, its public perceptions. To
build community, ASEAN needs the public to feel connected to the
organization and its activities. Recent lessons in Europe surrounding
the Brexit vote reaffirm the importance of public connectivity to
regional organizations.
2015 marked an important milestone in the regional organization’s
nearly 50-year history. Under the three pillars of political, economic
and socio-cultural ties, ASEAN projects the idea of “One Vision, One
Identity, One Community.” These aims of bringing people together,
strengthening economic ties and enhancing security and prosperity
are taking on new heights, as the organization works towards a
future of shared well-being. A key element in the success of these
goals lies with citizens views of ASEAN, its public perceptions. To
build community, ASEAN needs the public to feel connected to the
organization and its activities. Recent lessons in Europe surrounding
the Brexit vote reaffirm the importance of public connectivity to
regional organizations.
Research Interests:
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What does public opinion tell us about Burma’s longer-term prospects for democracy? The Asian Barometer Survey reveals contradictory attitudes regarding democracy and democratic values among the citizens of Burma.
Research Interests:
This essay investigates the determinants of institutional trust in six emerging democracies in East Asia. Citing cognitive dissonance theory, our research question concerns whether identifiers with opposition parties, in comparison to... more
This essay investigates the determinants of institutional trust in six emerging democracies in East Asia. Citing cognitive dissonance theory, our research question concerns whether identifiers with opposition parties, in comparison to identifiers with incumbent parties, have weaker institutional trust. We look into different types of political institutions to see if the asymmetry is more pronounced in partisan institutions than in neutral ones. Using data from Wave 3 of the Asian Barometer Survey (2010-2011), we construct indicators of trust in partisan and neutral institutions and identify their determinants. Our findings show that the effect of partisanship on trust in partisan institutions is indeed asymmetric in most cases, although such asymmetry in trust in some neutral institutions may still be present. These finding raise the question whether the recent decline in political trust in some emerging East Asian democracies is due to bad governance or to increasing partisan polarization.
Research Interests:
泰國近十五年來的政治動盪在保守份子的論述下是野心政治人物敗壞政黨政治所致。然而，本文就泰國自君主立憲以來的政治發展分析，發現保守份子由早期限制政黨與議會政治的發展，至利用政黨投入選舉以取得統治正當性，再至指謫政黨敗壞政治以合理化政變，與不同時期不同勢力角逐權力有關。尤其泰國政黨長久以來被認為僅是政治人物暫時結盟的綜合體，但這樣的發展卻是始於軍人主政的半民主時期；為尋求統治正當性，軍人組織政黨並投入選舉，但僅將政黨視為個人附庸，而非代表民眾利益的組織。軍事官僚政體也利用制訂政黨... more
泰國近十五年來的政治動盪在保守份子的論述下是野心政治人物敗壞政黨政治所致。然而，本文就泰國自君主立憲以來的政治發展分析，發現保守份子由早期限制政黨與議會政治的發展，至利用政黨投入選舉以取得統治正當性，再至指謫政黨敗壞政治以合理化政變，與不同時期不同勢力角逐權力有關。尤其泰國政黨長久以來被認為僅是政治人物暫時結盟的綜合體，但這樣的發展卻是始於軍人主政的半民主時期；為尋求統治正當性，軍人組織政黨並投入選舉，但僅將政黨視為個人附庸，而非代表民眾利益的組織。軍事官僚政體也利用制訂政黨法企圖形塑政黨體系，雖然結果不一定符合制定者的期望，尤其是泰愛泰黨興起後，政黨逐漸代表特定群體的利益。這樣的發展雖然讓泰國的議會政治與民主逐漸上軌道，卻也引來保守勢力的反擊，以政變的方式推翻民選政府以保護其利益。
Research Interests:
The classic spatial model predicts a positive relationship between party system fragmentation and polarization, and the relationship is mediated through electoral systems. Yet, this article argues that the relationship should be negative.... more
The classic spatial model predicts a positive relationship between party system fragmentation and polarization, and the relationship is mediated through electoral systems. Yet, this article argues that the relationship should be negative. Party system polarization provides additional incentives for voters to vote strategically under permissive electoral systems and through that brings down party system fragmentation at the district level. Because polarized politics raises the stakes of political fights, making electoral competitions intense. Voters then have the incentives to defect to major parties on the same side to prevent the other side from winning the elections. The theory is confirmed by a new dataset containing over 10,000 observations at the district level in 84 national elections. This article also tests the theory on three measures of strategic voting to obtain robust results.
Research Interests:
Previous studies argued that voters' strategic action was the key to explaining the gradual decrease in party system fragmentation, especially in an institutionalized party system. This article, however, argues that a downward trend in... more
Previous studies argued that voters' strategic action was the key to explaining the gradual decrease in party system fragmentation, especially in an institutionalized party system. This article, however, argues that a downward trend in
fragmentation is also likely to happen in a poorly institutionalized party system, and it is mainly caused by elites' rational entry. When parties rely on clientelistic networks to secure votes, they should be sensitive about the likelihood
of winning and withdraw from competition to avoid wasting resources when the chance is slim. Testing the effects of rational entry and strategic voting on the effective number of competitors simultaneously across nine elections in Thai-
land, the analyses con rm that strategic behavior of elites and voters asserts different levels of importance to determine party system fragmentation before and after the party system became institutionalized in 2001.
fragmentation is also likely to happen in a poorly institutionalized party system, and it is mainly caused by elites' rational entry. When parties rely on clientelistic networks to secure votes, they should be sensitive about the likelihood
of winning and withdraw from competition to avoid wasting resources when the chance is slim. Testing the effects of rational entry and strategic voting on the effective number of competitors simultaneously across nine elections in Thai-
land, the analyses con rm that strategic behavior of elites and voters asserts different levels of importance to determine party system fragmentation before and after the party system became institutionalized in 2001.
Research Interests:
The 2001 election was a critical juncture in Thai politics: For the first time, a party won over half of district seats and thereafter continued to dominate the electoral arena for a decade. Given that the Thai Rak Thai (TRT) Party’s 2001... more
The 2001 election was a critical juncture in Thai politics: For the first time, a party won over half of district seats and thereafter continued to dominate the electoral arena for a decade. Given that the Thai Rak Thai (TRT) Party’s 2001 victory was remarkable and had profound repercussions on Thai politics, how the TRT won the election by a large margin is an intriguing research question. This article argues that the combination of agent and institutional change explains the outcome. While the TRT was equipped with the assets to win the election, the electoral rule change from a BV to SMD system helped it achieve the considerable victory. This is because the SMD system cleared the obstacle to elite coordination for party leaders, which was hindered under BV. This article tests the proposed theory and the alternative explanation for the TRT’s 2001 victory, and the findings suggest that the change in electoral systems accounts for the outcome better than the alternative.